The Missile Site Opposite Oman
One of Iran’s most important missile bases sits directly opposite an important loading platform in Oman. This loading platform may act as the main oil export facility in the event Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz for the Arab countries opposite of Iran on the gulf.
If Trump uses Iran’s threat to close the strait as a premise to engage Iran at sea to take out Iran’s missile systems, nuclear program, and attempt to bring about a regime change, he will risk diffusing the internal opposition among Iranian society and cause them to rally behind the regime they once protested this happened once before when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980 ultimately solidifying Khomeini’s position in power.
If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and Oman’s oil loading platform becomes the fountainhead of the oil-producing Arab countries, it risks attacks from Iran either at that location or other tactical location(s). Many of the oil pipelines are already routed around Iran as a result of the Iran-Iraq War when Saddam Hussein convinced the Saudis to form the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in opposition to Iran. Saddam began orchestrating the flow of the oil pipelines in the region in an effort to isolate Iran. So even after the Iran-Iraq War ended, these oil and natural gas pipelines would continue with minimal reach through Iran with the exception of Turkey. The GCC was formed as a military collective between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, however, it never achieved substantial military effectiveness relying on the backing of superpowers to protect their interests in the region.
The Strategic Interest of the Strait of Bab Al-Hamdb
Iran’s strategy since the Iran-Iraq war and while under sanctions has been to combat economic isolation by establishing military dominance of major access points for shipping in the Middle East. Competition for the Strait of Bab Al-Hamdb originated in Egypt between the Islamic Republic and its allies and Saudi Arabia. Ultimately, the Islamic Republic’s control of the straight was ended by the United States and Saudi axis in Egypt, and the Islamic Republic turned its focus to the conflict in Yemen and Djibouti, and to some extent Somalia. If the Iran-Hezbollah-Assad axis takes control of the strait Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt access to the Gulf of Aden through the Red sea will be at the behest of Iran-Hezbollah-Assad axis.
South Front and Al-Arabiya TV reported that Iran backed Houthis refused to withdraw from the strategic Port of Al-Hudaydah on the western coast of Yemen, and a Saudi led coalition is assembling to attempt to secure the Red Sea Shipping Lines on July 28.