Amidst New Allegations of Secret Nuclear Sites, Iran prepares for Sanctions to Hit
The US government has ended the Treaty of Amity with Iran in order to neutralize the UN threat in its recent decision to uphold Iran’s claim at the ICJ as the US prepares to continue with its November 4th sanctions. The Trump administration is also going after the IAEA, International Atomic Energy Association, to hold Iran accountable for what could be secret nuclear sites suspected by Israeli intelligence. However, the IAEA has little access to Iran’s sites by the terms of the nuclear accord. By the US president’s withdrawal of the nuclear agreement, he is able to call for a new investigation. This will likely include sites of the Iranian government located outside of Iran in allied countries. The results could lead to military interventions by the UN.
If Rouhani’s presidency can be compared to a period of thaw in the Cold Warlike relationship with the US, then this time in Iran’s history may be seen as a collapse of the Islamic Republic similar to the USSR. The Soviet thaw from the gulag labor camps to Glasnost took decades to play out and the collapse itself was still a three year process from 1989 to 1991 for the Russian Federation. Russia is still rebuilding its Soviet sphere empire around the world. Though its being kept out of the western media, reports of continuing unrest inside Iran are still reaching Archival Institute. These reports suggest Iranians are holding onto hope in the near future that their circumstances will change for the better. Much of their hope lives in the strength of the Kurds to counter the IRGC and Basij forces under the absolute authority of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Khamenei. This is indicated for the common viewer on recent twitter campaigns with the hashtag, #IraniansWantRegimeChange.
The Islamic Republic on the other hand is holding out hope for the possibility that President Trump will be impeached and US policy shifted in favor the nuclear agreement in the coming US elections. This is a strenuous time both nations with much at stake on all sides. It is worth mentioning here that the full nuclear agreement still has not been declassified. If impeachment does take place, the US can expect stronger terms imposed by the US and Europe to maintain the secret terms negotiated and likely financial compensation to Iran including more cash payments and unfrozen assets to pay for Iran’s military build-up internationally.
United Nations Perpetuates the Iran-US Conflict Instead of Fostering Peace
More evidence of corruption and abuse in the United Nations with the International Court of Justice’s ruling for the US ease sanctions on Iran’s exports, and trade of medical, agricultural, and aviation equipment. However, Iran will not be paid damages by the US. This is a direct blow to activists inside Iran who rely on the international sanctions against the regime of the Islamic Republic for ongoing human rights violations and their efforts to hold their own government accountable for unconstitutional acts. Protests also accuse the government in Iran for financial corruption and disregard for international law. This will increase tension escalating the international conflict between Iran and its allies in Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, and others and the US.
The International Court’s decision comes at an interesting time when France recently announced it seized assets relating to Iran’s intelligence and espionage efforts indicating Iran’s commitment to international aggression towards Europe and perhaps interference in elections abroad even with a major win at the UN which has not deterred Iran’s belligerence. The mainstream media is still engaged more strongly than ever to save the nuclear accord with Iran in recent news relating to Kurdish elections and Saudi Arabia’s investment in Kurdistan. The Saudi government is in a race to build up their economy and diversify their industries and one way of doing so is to invest in fellow countries in the region. Iran has taken major offense to these recent achievements and may retaliate on its internal Kurdish minority as well as Kurdish and Saudi populations and investments in the region.
The ICJ upheld Iran’s claim that the 1955 Treaty of Amity had been violated by the sanctions a complete reversal of a previous decision regarding the 1987 case regarding the destruction of property which had been damaged during the Iran-Iraq War when the court ruled that the 1981 Algiers Accord resolving the taking of American hostages by Iran went against the spirit of the law for the early friendship agreement and did not apply to the new government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The recent decision shows the UN court as arbitrary and weakens the political integrity of the institution that so many countries rely on for impartial support in matters of conflict resolution.
The Treaty of Amity was set up during the reign of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi after Iran jointed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and began trading with the US. However, the relationship was substantially soured later by a nuclear missile program that the shah developed with the Israeli government in 1977, one of the first violations to Iran’s nuclear commitments. Operation Flower was an Iranian-Israeli program to develop nuclear missile capability in Iran as Iran’s military build-up was coming into full bloom. During the 1970s, the last shah had supported Iraqi Kurds push towards independence with military support. Now, several Kurdish groups are in engaged in limiting Iran’s power in the region in what has become a long and entrenched regional conflict.
The Iranian government supported by the mainstream media in the west has blamed the US sanctions for its ongoing economic mismanagement. In fact, the economic decline in Iran was stimulated just after the nuclear agreement was first signed in 2015 when prominent members of Iran’s establishment drained billions of dollars of its domestic economy. Now, Iranians inside the country are saying the government drained the country of its investment capital. Many members of Iran’s establishment took the opportunity to flee the country with their families and as much wealth as they could take with them. Since that time, the economic conditions have worsened putting the blame on international sanctions. However, Iran’s government has done nothing to reform its trade law to make it conducive to Foreign Direct Investment even with countries not participating in sanctions.